On Monday, a convoy of Malian armed forces was attacked by Islamist insurgents. According to Wasim Nasr, an expert on jihadi movements in France 24, the incident reveals the existence of Russian operations with Mali soldiers attacked in Mali. Interpretations and analysis.
France 24 was able to confirm the first conflict, according to several local and international witnesses. Mali, Monday, January 3, in the center of the country between Russian activists and jihadists of the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM or Jnim) affiliated with al-Qaeda. According to these testimonies, Mali military moves took place in the center of the country along with Russian elements.
On Monday a group of Malian armed forces were attacked by jihadists in Mandoli and at least one Russian secretary was wounded and later transferred to the Sevare area. The deaths should be mourned on the part of Mali and on the side of the jihadists.
However, An ambiguity persists over the Russian presence in Mali. That might be nice Wagner Company mercenaries Or Russian soldiers are stationed within the framework of bilateral relations between the two countries, or both. Moscow, through the Wagner Group, defends its interests without direct consequences or liability. This ability, which can be described as a hybrid, can be found in Western and / or UN countries such as Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic or Mozambique. It gives Russia the ability to maneuver forces in different theaters, where Wagner’s intervention defeated the jihadists of the Islamic State group.
Wagner calls: a dangerous bet
The engagement of the Wagner Group in Mali is expected by Western nations from three perspectives, one excluding the other: 1. the “Pretorian Guardian” of the current power; 2. An operation on the outskirts of the action zones of the French forces in Bergen; 3. A function at the center of the action areas of the burgundy.
This time, it exists in a second scenario. Third, if the “red lines” drawn by Paris are not respected, the French, European and possibly UN. Indicates the departure of forces.
If French forces are maintained, a ‘conflict’ process similar to the Syrian process is inevitable and necessary between the Russians and other existing forces. This will lead to the official recognition of Russian presence and influence in Mali, and to the recognition of this presence in Moscow and Bamako and its organization.
However, the betting of the Malian authorities on Wagner’s will not be without risk. Hundreds of foreign operations, war-torn and operating independently in Syria and Libya, can prove more than just restraining the same authorities. Central African example, The European Union (EU) has suspended training for the Armed Forces due to Wagner’s presence there, Being in everyone’s mind.
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